Crime prediction by data-driven Green’s function method

We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data.     

An information-theoretic approach for forecasting interval-valued SP500 daily returns

We develop an iterative and efficient information-theoretic estimator for forecasting interval-valued data, and use our estimator to forecast the SP500 returns up to five days ahead using moving windows. Our forecasts are based on 13 years of data. We show that our estimator is superior to its competitors under all of the common criteria that are used to evaluate forecasts of interval data. Our approach differs from other methods that are used to forecast interval data in two major ways. First, rather than applying the more traditional methods that use only certain moments of the intervals in the estimation process, our estimator uses the complete sample information. Second, our method simultaneously selects the model (or models) and infers the model’s parameters. It is an iterative approach that imposes minimal structure and statistical assumptions.     

The cognitive and the action-oriented elements of competence along the innovation process – evidence from R&D teams in the medical equipment sector

Abstract

Organizations are constantly searching for ways to enhance their innovative capacity and to sustain their competitive advantage. Much of the literature focuses on knowledge as the key driver for this pursuit. Unlike other studies, we define experience and knowledge as two basic elements of competence by borrowing from the experiential and cognitive learning theories and contrast their impact on the innovativeness of R&D teams. Building on the competence based perspective, we posit that the differences in competence inputs explain variations in team innovation performance along the innovation process. To test our assumptions, we analyzed the aggregated knowledge and experience levels for different technology competences of 868 employees in 49 R&D teams in a large contract-engineering corporation in the medical equipment sector. The findings reveal that technology experience is particularly fruitful within innovation implementation and is a driver for successful market introduction. The research contributes to the understanding when competence elements are especially important.     

Analyst coverage and lawsuit risk

In this study, we use a unique, hand-collected dataset of employee lawsuits and study the impact of analyst coverage on labour relations. We find that an increase in analyst coverage lowers the work-related litigations. In addition, we show that an increased number of analysts lowers the litigation cost, measured by settlement fees and attorney fees. Our results suggest analysts have an important impact on employee relations. Our research enriches the literature on employment practices and analyst coverage.     

基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模过程评价框架研究

文章从多分辨率交通仿真的建模过程入手,研究了系统仿真的校核、验证与确认(Verification Validation Accreditation,VVA)过程评价的原理。在此基础上,提出了基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模的过程评价框架。通过研究仿真系统生命周期中的一系列活动来评价研究结果的正确性和有效性,提高了系统的可信性,使仿真系统能够满足实际应用的需要。     

高职物流管理专业(港口与航运方向)课程体系研究——以新里程(天津)公司工作过程岗位技能为导向

以工作过程岗位技能为导向的课程体系设置是严谨的过程,需要在对实体企业的实际工作岗位技能进行调研后,才能展开具体课程设置。文章通过对新里程(天津)公司工作过程岗位技能进行数月调研后,根据该企业部门岗位职能拟定出高职物流管理专业(港口与航运方向)课程体系。     

基于物联网技术的“中国邮政”速递物流业务流程优化研究综述

首先对中国邮政速递物流公司的研究现状进行了研究,接着探讨了业务流程优化和重组的相关理论和方法,最后对物联网技术在业务流程优化和重组中的应用进行了研究。为基于物联网技术的"中国邮政"速递物流业务流程优化研究提供了理论和方法基础。     

海绵城市建设绩效评价指标体系研究

我国海绵城市建设绩效评价还处于起步阶段,急需构建科学合理的海绵城市建设绩效评价指标体系。通过对海绵城市建设全生命周期各项绩效评价内容的研究,全面选取评价指标,采用层次分析法、专家调查法给出指标权重,设置具有操作性的评价标准,建立总体级、项目级两个层级的具有针对性、科学性、完整性的海绵城市建设绩效评价指标体系,为海绵城市建设各阶段各层级的绩效监测或总体评价提供参考。     

服装工艺模板结构设计原理与制作

服装模板缝制技术目前在服装生产流程有着比较重要的作用,其模板工艺的成败直接关系到产品质量的整体水平,传统的车工工艺需要较长的时间在实践中获得技艺的提升,工艺模板对于传统的缝制工艺是一种创新和改进。可以起到节约成本、提高生产效率、提高产品质量的作用。